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One factor I think about often is the numbers required for fighting to break out. Military age males. America has an ongoing overweight/obesity problem that doesn't show signs of abating. To me this speaks to a level of comfort and complacency and I struggle to see those men engaging in actual fighting (but I freely admit I could be wrong on this point). The subset of military age males not overweight/obese and I wonder how this numerically compares - someone has to do the fighting for the disaffected.

My second comment is that I think serious consideration should be made at how rapidly Foreign powers and interests would intervene and involve themselves. America is geographically powerful and people want a piece of that. It is hard to imagine it remaining a civil war for more than a few days in my mind, the scale of involvement would be dramatic.

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I understand all of your points. In terms of military age men, you’d be surprised how quickly they’ll lose weight.

In regards to foreign powers, it does not benefit them to intervene with intent to end 2ACW. It DOES benefit them to keep the war going as long as possible.

May write a part two or further elaboration.

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You should write part two, I agree they will prefer a weak divided America that has a long running conflict. The third option is they intervene in attempt to take control, if it runs long enough and is seen as weak enough that is another option....

Oh no doubt they would shed the pounds after hostilities begin, likely not before.

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Jul 7, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

Also, "military age" can be extended to 50-year olds who can fulfill rear echelon duties. There are far more people capable of participating in a war than the basic analysis tells.

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Agreed. While we may not be young, there are a lot of middle to older males that would definitely take up the call. Additionally, there are a lot of younger males that seem to waiting (lazy) to do something with their lives. They may not appear to have much motivation, but they do revel in wanting to “do something” because they lack a sense of direction. So, maybe some of them turn to Team Blue wanting to live a video game fantasy with dire results. But perhaps, some of them turn to Team Red because they want “something better in their lives”, i.e. a home, a farm, a wife, etc., that they simply can’t obtain in the current homoglobo corporate structure that they don’t think they can’t fight against at the moment. We may be surprised. And as far as Team Blue vs. Team Red regarding the mega-cities; unless they (Team Blue) conduct a first strike on flyover country, Team Red will blockade Team Blue in their festering cities and let them eat each other. Canada and Mexico? Canada has more Team Red than Blue and they will deal with each other quickly. Mexico? It’s weapons hot at the border the moment a cartel (because the government has no power) attempts an incursion and then after that, it’s every Team Red border state Air Force doing straffing runs on the Mexican side until there nothing left. ACWII will have plenty of animosity and payback for everyone.

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I definitely agree that it does not benefit any foreign power. China and Russia, as you outlined, are much more likely to stoke the flames to let it happen, although I think any collapse in the US would lead to a collapse in China. The European countries would talk a lot and maybe provide material aid to east coast cities but would not dare to put boots on the ground.

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Jul 4, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

Excellent read Paul and something I have been struggling with for some time.

I'm interested in your thoughts on tribal breakdowns. Red vs Blue, while a helpful paradigm for Whites, doesn't account for the masses of brown "new Americans" nor the various tribes of jews, Muslims, Indians (dot) and Blacks all with varying degrees of high in-group preference. It would seem to me that even hard Red States like Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, and Tennessee would see internecine conflict between rural and urban.

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Yes you raise good points, which I hope to address with next week’s article.

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Jul 4, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

Hi Paul, I liked your article a lot, and because such things are extremely difficult to predict I'm very interested in the opinions of others here, because I definitely agree that the status quo is too painful to continue for long. However, I'm curious to read your opinion on the following two thoughts:

1) It's difficult for me to see how we could fight a civil war without a total economic collapse. This isn't 1865 where 80% of Americans were still subsistence farmers. The internet will go down, the power grid will go down, trucks will stop, everything depends on everything else, the stores are empty, and within a month 95%+ of Americans are dead.

2) The number one most important trend that I see in America is a term that I am borrowing from Aryn Elaine, the Consciousness Split. Right now the top 10-20% or so of people are just supercharging their lives using the Internet, while the remainder are utterly collapsing into porn, videogames, low testosterone, phones, and general hatred of masculinity. So the vast majority of people are simply incapable of doing anythings, and the functional people have little incentive to engage in a high casualty civil war when they are doing fine.

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I will dedicate an entire article addressing the points you make here and many others.

Look for it next Friday.

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Jul 3, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

Either there is economic collapse of some kind, or there is not.

If there is not, then we will continue to "reform" into a 21st century police state, with enough comfort and illusions of freedom to keep the masses in line. We are already there, but we will go more there. There will not be a widespread or meaningful armed revolt against the regime. That is a fantasy. On the bright side we may see a continued assertion of states' rights. These things, the police state with the illusion of freedom, and the assertion of states' rights, are already happening.

But if there is a true economic collapse, one that deprives the regime of its finances, then all bets are off. As long as the regime can afford to buy power, it will. Successfully. Since money is what this society worships above all. When the regime no longer has the money to buy the power it wields, then you'll see real change. But not before.

I have an impossible time picturing the Americans I just witnessed lock down, mask up, and get jabbed, with not very much protest, suddenly turning around and fighting a civil war along state lines.

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Stranger things have happened. Keep in mind, the regime had soft power to spend on the mandates and COVID. They don’t anymore.

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All I know is, every single one of my Conservative/Freedom type friends and family are so angry, they literally shake when talking about how our country currently is.... people are PISSED and when it happens, I don't wanna hear it LOL....

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Jul 2, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

Very interesting read, well thought and written. You expressed the same way I’ve thought about the ungodly amount of casualties there’d be, especially in the early stages, just from the collapse of our infrastructure and starvation alone.

I really hope with everything in me that it doesn’t happen though, that decency, normalcy, and prosperity can come peacefully.

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Great post. I'm glad I was shown this site.

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Jul 4, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

You at least twice mention "BAP."

I looked back for meaning. No go or maybe eyes too old.

No abbreviations please. You write too well to devolve into cryptic meaningless inside-joke type stuff

What is BAP?

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My apologies. Bronze Age Pervert, a thinker on the right wing.

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Jul 4, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

I assume you mean a man or writer.

So using BAP as a descriptive term (especially "post BAP") assumes we know what you mean.

Not criticizing as I am interested in how you think and what you're trying to say. Since so few people actually think abiut what they're writing, this is good and rare.

No idea what is inferred by a "bronze age pervert" so maybe just include/insert a short paragraph on what you mean by the phrase.

Sorry, was raised being chastised by great teachers who admonished us not to define words using undefined terms.

Thank you for your work and thought. No mispellings, a rare treat.

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Bronze Age Pervert is a Right Wing Thinker who wrote the book Bronze Age Mindset. He also hosts the Caribbean Rhythms podcast. He’s though, influenced by Nietzsche and Yukio Mishima, has largely influenced wider Right Wing thought.

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Jul 3, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

The dollar must fall. Its just that simple. As long as the dollar is the US currency the incentives drive people to continue to live as they always have for the most part. Which may very well happen, but regardless of whatever turmoil, largely nothing will change until the dollar stops having value in America.

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Insightful and accurate.

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Paul what are your thoughts on Bitcoin?

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Jul 7, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

Thank you for your time and thoughts. So many of these posts are being written, that it indicates "the writing is on the wall" regarding our future.

Question. Why would Team Red besiege Blue cities; to what benefit? With the food shortages that will assuredly occur, the Blue Cities will empty very quickly. I see the challenge for Team Red not in taking the cities, but keeping the people escaping the cities from taking over Red territory with shear numbers of migrants. Thoughts?

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Red team besieging Blue areas is the most obvious, most basic of all these projections.

It follows the historical patterns of war.

Each side plays to their strengths.

The battlefield is globalization's Winners vs its Losers... the underclass white Christian heartlands rebelling against the metro Imperial core.

Blue cities vs rural hinterlands.

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Jul 4, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

I appreciate your efforts, Mr. Fahrenheidt, to look to the future, to examine scenarios, and to anticipate what is likely to happen. That said though, sir, I think more attention should be spent on sparking events which might lead to the conflagration of war, instead of simply tallying the supply of flammable material in red and blue states. If I understand correctly, during the pre-Civil War period, there were similar enmities between North and South. What *triggered* the War, however, was northern Federalists who imposed, by means of the Federal government, tariffs which were disadvantageous to the South. It might be good to examine possible Federal actions by blue states to further disadvantage the red ones. Although it seems that such actions would have to be extreme, as the blue federal actions taken which have deindustrialized red states, and turned them into 'flyover' country, have already done great damage to red states.

I fear, though, that your timeline for the self-demolition of the U.S. (2030 or so) may be just a tad optimistic. The swamp creatures of the current U.S. administrative (or 'deep') state have been pushing for the ruin of Russia, and for the parking of nuclear missiles on Russia's borders, for the last 30 years. Russia in general, and Putin in particular, consider both of those to be existential threats, worthy of retaliation via global thermonuclear war. The U.S./NATO alliance shows no signs of stopping such threats, and the current presidential administration looks likely to be ousted in 2024. It would therefore be tempting for that administration to take action which could not be undone by a later administration.

One scenario which troubles me greatly is the possibility that the current President, and the administrative state he rode in on, would so escalate the 'special military action' in Ukraine to the point that it proceeds to MADness: Mutually Assured Destruction. I fear that your estimate of 100 to 200 megadeaths in the U.S. would be entirely accurate, with most of them occurring in blue states on the left and right coast. I could easily see the current administration either ordering that blue survivors be housed in red states, or, more likely, that that administration would declare martial law, and suspend presidential elections.

Either of those situations, and more likely the latter, would be the necessary *casus belli* for your suggested new Civil War.

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With Humility I’ve been saying a version of this for some years…

3 wars

1. CW2

2. Many regional conflicts in the rest of World as the global hegemon America contracts into its internal war.

3. Western Hemispheric war centered around America as try as they might Mexico cannot escape this round with 10% of its population in America, this has the effect of a cunning strategic trap intended or not. Canada is under Trudeau at least no longer a sovereign nation. Also while not widely known the big winner of NAFTA was the great Lakes region - a $6 Trillion economy for both sides and it is industrial and agronomy not “finance”. I will say whoever takes it and holds that wins the long fight.

Sucking in Mexico and Canada means they must seek allies (or at least Mexico will). That can only be Russia or China as they must be nuclear powers, moreover both are motivated to strike at the great tormentor USA.

I don’t think nuclear war is certain.

I do think some version of the 3 wars above is already moving.

Having said that- I don’t think one can count on the Blue states National Guard or police following their beloved Dem Governors and mayors. I am a just now left army-NG veteran of some 2 decades, in a word NO.

The Dems and libs can probably trust their soldiers and police less than anyone. In fact they don’t.

This doesn’t mean the Blues won’t have troops or police.

Just not the ones they have now.

These are never hard to find in war as long as you have men.

What Blue does have is vital to success of armies; Above all organization, logistics, money, finance, intelligence, communications.

Above all Team Blue is cohesive and committed. Team Red doesn’t exist.

Trump is not a war leader , we’d know. He had his chance and ran.

He will do for now, we’ll not get any war orders from him, be not dependent on that- basically he lost when he gave up Flynn.

Team Red doesn’t exist and will be difficult to conjure from the ether, nothing happens by itself. The inertia does not work for us.

There’s movement now because of Dobbs, there will have to be a shock or series of shocks coming from the enemy to get both real leadership and organization.

For an actual war instead of Blue hunting Red to extinction the Veterans must jump in.

The Veterans will not join something that does not exist, there must be organization.

In short Red will have all the fighters and no organization to even feed never mind supply, pay. Blue will have everything else. < >!please note well professional soldiers think logistics, amateur soldiers think tactics. <

Blue does strategy very well.

Red does AR-15 pics well and cannot understand it, they think its going to be a day at the range.

Red (I’m Red) are only potential and don’t exist, never mind commit. Red GOP and actividts are frankly a lot of women and men who are children at power.

We also have a profound lack of commitment and total lack of organization. “We just want to be left alone “ which means…yer dead, buckwheat. That’s going to be a lot of dead people right there, and the Petit Bourgeoisie are dominant in Red, they may all be considered Libertarians in any test (selfish).

What then else does Red have?

Strategic Depth and room to maneuver, train, gather resources, organize, build armies and the support infrastructure.

Most of the veterans (who come from the same families). A great deal of sympathy from the extant police (who can quickly be replaced- warning). Most of the farmers, skilled labor, workers, at present the brightest light is the truckers. Forget the ARs.

Get the truckers and get the fuel distribution system and get the truckers fuel and DEF. Grabbing the fuel is Insurgency and war 101. This we could do, and it immediately reverses our organization and logistics fatal flaws (and dear sir the outcome is very, very much in doubt as favorable to us).

The Germans won in 1941 against USSR because each panzer division had 1500 trucks, the Soviets failed and their superior armor in numbers and quality (yes) failed because they ran out of fuel and parts - they had few trucks. In 44 the Russians had US trucks and won.

Trucks and petroleum system sir.

Forget the rest.

This we Reds can do.

Blue can’t.

And the best Trucker leaders are worth more than any politician in sight…

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Jul 7, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

While I do see war is likely, the moment WE the people set it off, our own government will bring in the UN troops. Mostly Chinese, I think that soon enough, the people will realize they are the enemy and our fury will be redirected if only for a short time till we wipe them out. Cause make no mistake, they won't be here to create peace, they will be here to concur us all. What WE the people need to realize is, we're all being duped into hating each other. If we set all that aside and combined forces to wipe out the Mainstream news, Billionaires like Soros, Schwab and the other elites. I bet we could live in peace without feeling a need to harm one another.

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Jul 4, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

Paul, in your Second Civil War scenario, can you make a guess as to which parts of America would suffer the most? Northeast? Northwest? Southeast? Southwest? Etc.

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I’ll elaborate more next week, but I believe Ohio and Indiana will be literal Trench warfare.

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Appalachia is the biggest threat. The good ol' boys from WV to TN, GA to MS pose the biggest threat to the power center of DC, NY, Boston. PA to IL would be the rear guard to their operations.

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I really hope it doesn't come to pass although I fear you may well be right. To what extent do you see Mexico and Canada getting involved in all of this? I live right on the southern border and I always keep hearing about acts of barbarism committed by cartels.

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Mexico and Canada will cease to exist. They may throw in with Team Red or Team Blue, or return to all out clan warfare between cartels.

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Jul 3, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

I know Tennessee was last out, first back in during the first civil war. I assume you meant to include it in the Red State list.

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You are correct, forgive me for leaving it out.

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Jul 4, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

No worries, great article. Unfortunately, I fear your predictions are likely to be only too accurate.

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Jul 3, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

What about the immediate and fundamental economic consequences of the suicidal sanctions by the west on Russia? If continued by our insanely evil leaders, there won't be enough means to exist as a coherent nation, much less fight a war.

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There are ALWAYS means to fight a war.

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No question, even if it's clubs or baseball bats, but by that time we're fighting over the scraps left from civilization.

My perspective is that of Tom Luongo on a national scale: "The short answer is what I’ve been saying for nearly three years now, The Davos Crowd wants the US destroyed and it is working from within and without our government to achieve that goal. Biden’s staunch support of Ukraine fits that thesis perfectly."

His post today and another a few days ago clearly shows that we in the west are depleting our resources at an unsustainable and unreplacable pace - mission accomplished!

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