The Second American Civil War
It's inevitable, and I'm tired of pretending it's not.
Today is July 2nd, 2022. One-hundred and fifty-nine years ago today, John Bell Hood charged up the slopes of Little Round Top at the cost of his left arm, and Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain charged down the slopes of the same at the cost of a Dixie free and independent, and an America that resembled the vision the founders had. Regardless, it happened.
These three days, July 1st-3rd, have always stuck in my mind as a period of almost holy reflection. Not just because I have a kinsman buried in the Gettysburg cemetery, but because it’s the one piece of soil on Earth I feel tied to. The reader will forgive that this is a period in which the Civil War is more present in my thoughts than damn near any other time of year. Yet this year, my thoughts turn from the past to the future.
As the purposely provocative title states, the Second American Civil War will happen. Unlike gentlemen such as Scott Greer, I have always entertained the possibility of a second war between the states. It was not until yesterday, when John Buford repelled Harry Heth at the cost of his friend John Reynolds’ life, that its inevitability pressed itself upon my consciousness. It was not until today that I realized its shape would be far more familiar than many give it credit.
If you were a novelist writing the story of the United States from 2001 until now, and viewed the history of such not as a sequence of Political Events, of Historical Processes, of Economical Phenomena, but first and foremost as a story, where’s the only place this plot can end up?
The recent Supreme Court Ruling on Roe v. Wade has unleashed the full might of the Shitlib media complex. The state is allowing casual violence on behalf of those who wish to continue the wanton and absolute murder of children. This is only the most recent example.
Take the (ongoing) January 6th hearing. That fateful day, imbued with so much power and destiny, will ring out from the throats of men on both sides of the war to come. Why do I say this? That day was powerful enough to spawn two different mythologies.
The Blue Mythology is that Jan 6th was the proof that the evil patriots of “MAGA Country,” illegally “Stormed” the Capitol, a sacred and untouchable temple of “Our Democracy.”
The Red Mythology is that Jan 6th was the last stand of patriots against a disgustingly corrupt and evil government, and wanted to make their dissatisfaction with the same understood.
The place of Trump is central in both. The recent testimony given by some bimbo turncoat on Trump’s staff (Many such cases!) of Trump literally fighting the Secret Service to join his people (whether it’s true or not) has solidified the mythology of Trump as, “The one man who can save America,” in the minds of his supporters. On the flip side, it’s solidified that he’s literally evil Hitler 2.0 for his opponents.
This means a lot more than most will give credit to. The post-9/11 Zeitgeist ended when Trump descended that escalator in Trump tower. Now we’re living through the era of Trump. Joe Biden’s (un)incumbency only proves that there’s a Trump-sized hole in American political consciousness. A hole that will only be filled by the man himself, and the ideas that tie themselves to his name. Dark MAGA didn’t come from nowhere.
Quite frankly, there is no “Right-Wing” without Trump. He’s more important than his own personage, he’s the means of summoning a Platonic Ideal, and a shift of Epochs.
Both of those aside, almost every issue in this country is coming to a head. California leaked the names of every concealed carry license holder in the state. Congress is getting ready to pass Red Flag Laws (which will be abused into confiscating the guns of their opponents.) The Jan 6th committee is a continuous Kangaroo Court for the regime’s political opponents. Minorities are being unleashed like a pack of rabid dogs to cause as much chaos as possible. Corrupt DA’s are bringing down the hammer on anyone who defends themselves against the same. Add any number of issues, controversies, scandals, media circuses, etc.
Even the Office of the President, once seen as a holy position, has been degraded into the “Clown-in-Chief.” This is to say nothing about the state of the Federal Government or the United States Military itself.
This has been a fire burning since the 1990s. Waco, Ruby Ridge, Cliven Bundy, Ted Kacyznski, Dr. Pierce, the Klan’s Last Gasp, Oklahoma City, all of it occurred in Team Red territory, what John David Ebert calls his “Zone of Discontent.” Oklahoma City (very likely a Federally-instigated false flag,) brought the ‘90s discontent to an end. Bill Clinton, the political genius of the pre-9/11 Zeitgeist, had the wisdom, support, and competency to ensure such was done.
The fire was reduced to embers, but the Tech boom in the early 2000s brought about the intellectual foundations for another go at a real American Right Wing revival. Nick Land, Curtis Yarvin, Glenn Beck, Michael Savage, even Rush Limbaugh began questioning that something was wrong with the entrance of Obama into the White House. 4chan was in its golden age, and ideas began permeating the corners of internet consciousness. The ideas were elevated when the internet was elevated, exacerbated when 2008 brought the early 2000s Golden Age to a close.
The fire was once again stoked when these foundations came to a head in 2015, when Trump descended that escalator and changed history. The Alt-Right was the expression of discontent which had been building since it was snuffed in the 90s, fueled by Ron Paul’s failure, the endless war in the middle east, the recession, and the desecration of the American political process. Centered around the personage of Richard Spencer (who was the unequivocal leader of the Right-Wing in 2016-17,) the Alt Right was on the fast track to becoming a legitimate political force. Like in the 1990s, this was brought to an end by another Federally-instigated false flag: Charlottesville.
Unlike the ‘90s, there was no political genius to snuff out the flames. Instead of ending the threat, it was forced back online. Under the Aegis of Trump, the Right entirely changed focus, foundations, and ends. Now we live in the post-BAP right, where ideas once deemed insane have become commonplace. Unlike 2017, there is no center to our side of things, which can conveniently be entrapped and cut off.
We have no center, as we carry the next Zeitgeist. This is the biggest difference. Team Red is meant to bring about the next age, even the Neocons. Team Blue are the reactionaries in the worst sense of the term. They are clinging to an age long past, and are spiritually older for it. That, more than anything else, is why this war is inevitable.
Battle-Lines and Inertia
Not only will America have a Second Civil War, but it will be a Second War Between the States. As a matter of fact, I can fairly accurately predict what the battle lines will look like:
Certain Red Side – Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia.
Certain Blue Side – Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maine.
Unsure/To Be Decided – Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Georgia, Virginia.
The war will not be “Urban v. Rural,” like many make it sound. In fact, it will be fought in all terrains, climates, and regions of the country. Why is this? Because “Team Red” and “Team Blue” is the Occam’s Razor way of understanding the way things stand currently in the United States. Team Red includes everyone from our side of things (BAP sphere included,) to just shy of Normie or Corpocons. Team Blue includes everyone from Shitlibs to Antifa, to regime shills and (likely) military loyalists.
Blue Cities in Red States will get with the program very quickly. Red Hinterlands in Blue States will do the same, though the latter will have less reason to do so (especially if they share a border with a Red State.) Regardless of how it exactly shakes out in the weeks and months between “Crisis” and “War Starts,” the battle lines will (at least initially) be drawn on state borders.
Why do I so heavily emphasize state borders? Inertia.
If one gives a close study to American History, they’ll find that while the sentiment of “State before Country,” did exist prior to 1861, it was not emphasized into secessionist proportions until the last couple years before the war kicked off. Why is this? Inertia.
Inertia is defined as, “A property of matter by which it remains at rest or in uniform motion in the same straight line unless acted upon by some external force.” This means that people will continue doing the same thing ad infinitum until external forces force them to change their actions. And when people do change their actions, they take the path of least resistance toward changing them.
The consequences of applying the concept of inertia to historical and social forces offers many explanations to why things are the way they are. People are inherently lazy, even when they’re acting. If the need for a new Government arises, why would it be created out of nothing when a government with a constitution, a history, personnel in its employ, and (if you factor in National Guards, State Defense Forces, and State Police Departments as State assets,) military forces, already exists?
State Governments exist. Not only do they exist, but they have begun to realize that they gain power and support by opposing the Federal Government. Ron DeSantis in Florida has led the charge in this regard, and many other Governors such as Governor Stitt in Oklahoma, have begun following his lead in opposing the Federal Government. It’s not as if state-centric sentiment is declining. In fact, never before in my life have I experienced so many Americans as conscious of the state which they’re from and which they inhabit.
Should the ruling elite continue to make the Federal Government into a comically tyrannical body to impose their agenda (such as enforcing vaccine mandates, rigging elections, and purposely attempting to engineer national collapse,) continue to expect Red Team State Governments to act in their best interests and oppose the Federal Government.
Bleeding Men, Bleeding Competence
I recently spoke to an Army Recruiter, and he brought to my attention one of the most important pieces of news I’ve yet heard:
The United States Army currently has the lowest number of new recruits since 1973.
This took me aback, so I looked at the Army’s benefits to new recruits. Sure enough, enlistment sign-on bonuses have been increased from $30,000 to $50,000! Federal Tuition Aid has been upped a thousand bucks. The G.I. Bill is beginning to be awarded sooner. Similar trends are happening in the Navy, Air Force, and Marines.
It’s not just the military, it’s the entire Federal Government. More and more people are retiring, moving to the private sector, or simply quitting agencies like the FBI, CIA, ATF, etc. than ever before. In both military and civilian, the vaccine mandate has culled manpower even further. Approximately 12% of military personnel are currently undergoing separation procedures or awaiting the results of exemptions.
The bottom line is that the Federal Government is undergoing one of the greatest manpower shortages it has ever experienced. Most of the individuals they’re losing are competent white men in the case of the civilian side. In the military case, the ones leaving are disproportionately Senior NCOs and Junior Officers. That is, E6s (Staff-Sergeants)-E9s (Sergeant Majors) and O1s (Second Lieutenants)-O3s (Captains.)
For the non-military minded readers, Senior NCOs and Junior Officers are (functionally) the most important parts of the Army. They are responsible for the execution of nearly all actual missions thought up by the higher-ups. This will in essence mean that the military will have too many brains and not enough limbs.
Looking at the state of the military, I don’t blame the people for leaving. America has not “won” a war since Desert Storm (more a media stunt than a war.) The humiliation in Kabul that occurred last August was particularly striking. I watched the faces of the men in the 82nd Airborne change in real time. They felt humiliated when the “Greatest” Army in the world couldn’t defeat a collection of Goat-fuckers.
Beyond the aforementioned vaccine mandate, the Army has been toxic since the Obama-era reforms purged an entire generation of Officers and NCOs fresh with the knowledge of the failures we faced in the Great War On Terror. Instead, careerism and social-climbing was encouraged, the result being a Joint Chiefs made up of yes men and a Secretary of Defense who still sits on the board of Raytheon.
We lost in Iraq. We lost in Syria (though we were never there, officially.) We lost in Afghanistan. We’re losing in Ukraine. No fixes are coming.
My High-School History teacher once made a point that stuck with me: No matter which society you’re looking at, when you have a large number of unemployed military-aged men, bad things follow. I cannot tell you where these orphaned soldiers and agents will end up, but it will lead nowhere good.
The Horrors of a Hypothetical War
Depending on when/how this war pops off, I predict casualties just shy of (possibly breaking) 100 million. This is all casualties, including civilian deaths caused by war-related disease, malnutrition, and collateral damage.
The current urban population of the United States is just shy of 275 million. The supermajority of it is concentrated in a half-dozen cities and metropolitan areas on both coasts of this country, most in the projected territory of Team Blue. While I hold that the Civil War will not be “Urban v. Rural,” to say the divide will play no part is dishonest.
Team Red and Team Blue will face different problems, and in all likelihood, different casualty counts. While Team Blue will not have sufficient hinterlands for its massive population (provoking an inevitable starvation crisis that will lop off a significant number of people in said cities,) Team Red will not have enough people to work its own hinterlands, causing a similar (though much less pronounced) food crisis.
The fact of the matter is that the supermajority of food planted, harvested, and distributed by the United States is so automated that a food crisis will occur no matter which way the states go, until smaller man-powered farms can fill the deficit. Either way, we’re looking at tens of millions dead (at least) within the first few months. This is to say nothing of the interrupted power grid, scarcity of medical supplies, outbreaks of cholera, typhus, polio, etc., and any other number of monsters unleashed by kinetic warfare.
I haven’t even addressed the fighting yet.
In a purely military sense, the Second American Civil War will closer resemble the First World War than the First American Civil War. What I mean is that a number of new weapons have been developed by the U.S. Government in the last twenty years, and have only been deployed in limited quantities overseas. Like the advances of weapons prior to WWI, commanders will have very little idea how to properly use them at first, which will contribute to a massive amount of casualties on the front end of the war. Except the otherwise competent WWI Generals will be replaced by careerists, amateurs, and (more likely than not,) women.
I won’t speculate on the tactical particularities of the Second American Civil War. At the war's beginning, I suspect America’s forces in being to split (unevenly) between Red and Blue. Depending on whether both sides claim to be the Government, or a Government (the difference is important,) you’ll see Active and National Guard units stack on either side of the fence. State Defense Forces, State & Local Police Departments, and Paramilitaries of both stripes will generally go the way their state or sensibility goes.
No matter which way you slice it, I suspect the war will turn into a variety of sieges of Blue cities by Red armies. This is exasperated by the fact that every state in Team Red is geographically contiguous, while every state in Team Blue is split into about three or four islands. The Republicans in the Spanish Civil War faced the same problem, and Franco’s plan to defeat in detail was made the path of least resistance by the drawing of the battle lines.
These sieges will be an absolute bitch. Not only will the massive concentration of urban buildings act as a natural fortress, the United States Interstate System was built to simultaneously serve as military infrastructure and urban fortifications. Ever notice how the Interstates loop around major cities like walls? Ever notice spaces dug for mortar pits, ammo dumps, staging areas for motor-pools (rest stops,) and that each major city has an international airport within that loop of Interstate wall? This is to say nothing about Air Defense assets, which combined with the International Airport will almost assure local air superiority for the defenders of blue cities. Also consider that the Urban battlefield has become 4d, as metro systems and other such tunnels will need to be fought through and won.
The war’s outcome will never be in doubt. But it will be long, and it will cost more lives than we’ve ever thought possible. I can assure the dear reader that America will never be the same afterwards. In all honesty, I believe the youthful optimism of our country not yet three centuries old will be forever gone while we try our best to pick up the pieces post-bellum.
Foreign Interests Fanning the Flames
From the Eisenhower administration until the tenure of Bush Sr., the United States Government had a policy of “Don’t fuck with Russia.” Don’t even look at them the wrong way. This was back when there was competency and wisdom within the U.S. Government. Now is a far different story.
Retarded Boomers raised on schizophrenic visions of a Grand Soviet Empire of Evil now run the country. They’ve resolved that before they all die off, they will fight the boogeyman in their head with nuclear weapons, and though the rest of us may die, they’re willing to make that sacrifice.
Russia realizes that these people will not leave them alone. Our elites are old, crazy, and not long for this world. But few can do more damage than a dying man, and the boomer elites won’t care what happens to the world after they die, so long as they’ve destroyed Russia. Given that there’s no other way the Boomers and their deteriorating military can win against Russia, all roads lead to nuclear weapons.
George W. Bush ended the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction, and both the United States and Russia have drastically reduced their Nuclear Arsenal. Warheads are much weaker in both instances. I.e., if one were to nuke New York City with one of our current warheads, only a part of the city would be destroyed.
As things currently stand, a nuclear confrontation between the United States and Russian would result in around 40% of the U.S. population dying, as opposed to 95% of the Russian population. This is the “I win” card the boomers want, and Russia knows it. Russia also knows that the United States is a shit-show house of cards waiting for any excuse to tear itself apart. If I were Russia, I’d be doing everything I could to fan those flames.
China is another factor. While I’m not convinced that their “Chinese Century” PR campaign is anything other than an excuse to keep up with the U.S., they will likely welcome any disruption in U.S. dominance as a chance to find new markets. Though the ending of U.S. food shipments may cause China its own crisis, since when did the Chinese elites care about such things? Like Russia, China may seek to fan flames, keep the U.S. occupied, then take the chance to expand into markets now vacant by the U.S.’s exit.
A Bleak Future, But One Necessary
Some or all of what I’ve outlined above could be wrong. As a matter of fact, I hope to God that it is. Yet I don’t feel like it is, which is not a great feeling. Regardless, I don’t believe the die will be cast until 2028 at the earliest, 2030 at the most likely, and sometime in the next decade at the latest.
Any number of events, reversals, unknown phenomena, and otherwise unpredictable information could render my speculation obsolete. Should such occur, give thanks to God for sparing us from interesting times. Until then, I will assume war.
This will not be the romance of 1861-1865. Names and legends will be born, as they are in all wars, but they’ll be a small conciliation to the sheer weight of loss that will follow. I doubt it will break America, but it will age it. Even our ideals on the Right-Wing side of things, our justified hatred of the current order and hope to change it, won’t be enough. We may even forget it after the first five minutes, when no one will remember why the war was fought in the first place. Only that we’re Team Red and they’re Team Blue.
I find it very strange. Not thirty years ago, Gettysburg (1993) was released to great reception across the nation. Reenacting was widespread and commonplace. Old men, many veterans of WWII and Vietnam, looked back on that long past war as a reminder of their new national unity. Confederate flags were rarely given a second glance. Robert E. Lee was regarded as a great man, and both northerners and southerners felt old wounds had finally healed.
Now, any bar in America has a MAGA Boomer talking about the Second Civil War.
Time is a flat circle.
One factor I think about often is the numbers required for fighting to break out. Military age males. America has an ongoing overweight/obesity problem that doesn't show signs of abating. To me this speaks to a level of comfort and complacency and I struggle to see those men engaging in actual fighting (but I freely admit I could be wrong on this point). The subset of military age males not overweight/obese and I wonder how this numerically compares - someone has to do the fighting for the disaffected.
My second comment is that I think serious consideration should be made at how rapidly Foreign powers and interests would intervene and involve themselves. America is geographically powerful and people want a piece of that. It is hard to imagine it remaining a civil war for more than a few days in my mind, the scale of involvement would be dramatic.
Hi Paul, I liked your article a lot, and because such things are extremely difficult to predict I'm very interested in the opinions of others here, because I definitely agree that the status quo is too painful to continue for long. However, I'm curious to read your opinion on the following two thoughts:
1) It's difficult for me to see how we could fight a civil war without a total economic collapse. This isn't 1865 where 80% of Americans were still subsistence farmers. The internet will go down, the power grid will go down, trucks will stop, everything depends on everything else, the stores are empty, and within a month 95%+ of Americans are dead.
2) The number one most important trend that I see in America is a term that I am borrowing from Aryn Elaine, the Consciousness Split. Right now the top 10-20% or so of people are just supercharging their lives using the Internet, while the remainder are utterly collapsing into porn, videogames, low testosterone, phones, and general hatred of masculinity. So the vast majority of people are simply incapable of doing anythings, and the functional people have little incentive to engage in a high casualty civil war when they are doing fine.