39 Comments
Jul 10, 2022·edited Jul 10, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

Agree with your assessment of the Rust Belt being fought over, especially due to the strategic necessity of residual industry for arms production. However, I think that you are incorrect about the suburbs not being fierce areas for fighting & that red areas in blue states will not be fought over for long. To the contrary, suburbs are on the outskirts of cities and are generally purple in orientation, so any attempt at conquest by Team Red of Blue cities will have to go through those areas. Second, the consolidation of Red areas in Blue states is actually one of the first objectives of Team Blue. Therefore, members of Team Red in blue states MUST prevent, delay, & harass via partisan warfare or conventional means any attempt by Team Blue to complete this objective. In other words, resource and area access denial.

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That relies on suburbs continuing to be occupied. Since they're generally economically sterile residential zones entirely reliant on extended supply chains, I'd expect the suburbs to be abandoned fairly early in the conflict, making their purple status a moot point. People move to suburbs because they want a safe place for their kids. The moment that calculus changes, they'll either relocate to cities or rural areas, probably depending on their political orientation in this scenario.

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Both can be true- the civilians shall run from war, and the burbs a battlefield.

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Its not just the burbs that have extended supply lines 😉

Why have a look at the Red/Blue county map!

The position of Blue is absurd and we should strive to keep it that way. 😊

To whistle happily TE Lawrence we ❤️ this Red / Blue county map, why for a time it should stay essentially the way it is, Blue should go on a strict diet and get lots of daily exercise of a particular sort. Blue should not be put on this diet by Red to the point of starvation, nor should Red exercise Blue to the point of investment (an investment 🩸we can ill afford) nor FFS make them so desperate they surrender or consolidate.

Not at all.

We don’t want to force a decision, certainly not.

We simply need to encourage their natural indecision, and their emotive and jealous (psychotic) unwillingness to never give on anything or give up anything.

Oh no.

This jealousy and unwillingness to share (or consolidate on less absurd lines) should be encouraged.

They just need enough exercise to keep holding on, not so little exercise they can mass, a sort of constant tension but not desperation, not unlike perhaps Kabul in 2020. Desperate people make choices.

Annoyed and distracted people...spread themselves too thin.

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Sir,

I’d love to join Team Red.

I’ve got the skills and experience.

Too bad it doesn’t exist.

Petroleum distribution systems and Truckers sir. That we can do and they’re already in. We die of famine without them anyway, never mind lose.

Gasoline and Trucks Folks.

Or we’re gone without a shot.

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author

You are beyond correct. I will be moving to Texas soon. You can guess why.

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I'm not so sure nukes won't be used. Biological warfare has the potential for blowback, unless you've vaccinated your own population (in the case of a virus) ... although non-contagious weapons such as anthrax could be effective. In any case, if it becomes more important to remove a city than to take it, nukes may come into play. Not right away, but after years of bitter warfare, the moral cost may be judged negligible when weighed against the morale cost.

There's also the utility of nuclear blackmail. Say there's one, just one, missile sub whose crew throws in with Team Red. They don't need to fire their payload; they just need to threaten to do so, and the threat alone could be sufficient to cause one of the blue islands to surrender.

Then again, the Navy is the bluest of the services, and I can't think of any reason why Team Blue wouldn't use similar tactics against Team Red, especially when the latter have fewer, and smaller, cities.

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author

Exactly. I thought of Nuclear Blackmail as I was writing and forgot to put it in. The Navy almost certainly will throw in with team blue, but Team Red will probably have the Land Silos. Maybe a strange kind of MAD agreement will occur. Too many variables and uncertainties.

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It would be quite remarkable if MAD were to persist throughout a civil war, but stranger things have happened.

Navy going with Blue introduces another interesting variable: trade restriction. Red territory will almost certainly be subject to blockade attempts. At the same time, blue islands are absolutely dependent on trade. Can't bring everything in by air, that's far too expensive. I wonder if Team Red might bring back letters of marque in order to reduce the trade flow into blue ports?

Given that Team Red's main ports are in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean might become a more interesting place than it's been for a few hundred years.

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The ranks are probably pretty Red, the Flag Officers either Blue or Weathervanes.

We do not live on the sea, nor depend on it, not really.

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MAD would be interesting as a scenario. However, MAD actually would be more likely to ensure a peaceful separation if hostilities do not break out. After hostilities break out, MAD is no longer going to be in effect- This will be a literal total war since both sides will see it as existential! Furthermore, what areas would Team Blue be likely to target since cities in Red states are Blueish? It does not make sense for Team Blue to bomb its own cities, except as an area denial weapon. The costs for Team Red to use nuclear weapons are much lower, the benefits much higher than for Team Blue. Reason: How does Team Red address the problem of the Mass Man? Answer: Force without limit.

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I suspect you're correct that MAD would prove difficult to maintain during a civil war of this nature.

Cities in red areas might not stay blue. In the early phases of the conflict, and in the antebellum period leading up to it, there would likely be a degree of internal migration with supporters of red and blue sorting themselves accordingly. In that case, team blue might not be as hesitant to sterilize red cities.

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Old missileer here. FWIW, ICBMs are not a factor. They can't be used internal to the CONUS. Each of the lower three stages burns for about a minute each, and that throws the payload w-a-y downrange.

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Oct 3, 2022·edited Oct 3, 2022

I think it might be imperative to nuke hostile Navy fleets. If say through insurgency directly attacking airfield or just cutting of fuel lines through convoy ambushes, then the floating airfields we all know as aircraft carriers become a huge threat, especially if we're at the city siege phase. It would be the only way the cities could get air support. Just trying to get air superiority against carrier based aircraft covered by aegis might be too much to overcome. So talking the cities while they have air cover and cruise missiles, bloody affair. So maybe throw a bunch of harpoons and LRASM at a carrier group and if you get one hope the rest back off, or throw a few ballistic nukes that way. No fallout, no massive civilian casualties, and it's a big morale shock. Maybe the crew feels they can overcome wave after wave of ASM's, but hypersonic ballistic missiles? Simple threat, come to red ports to surrender, flee to another country and be hunted for the rest of your lives, or die.

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Jul 10, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

Thought provoking! Biden has thrown his lot into the destruction of Americas energy resources and the defeat of Russia at any cost. It’s his legacy!

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I’m going to take politely a basic exception to our hosts premise that 2ACW is inevitable.

2ACW ran from February 2020 (Covid) to 20 January 2021 when Biden was sworn in.

Call me Sarge, I’ll believe it when I see it. I don’t. Would love to.

There’s no fight in them now and no one leads, nothing to join.

Ireland 1847 wasn’t a war, it was a culling of the herd. That’s what is happening now.

Let us hope that changes.

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author

While I obviously disagree your calls to action are consistent and well-argued. I would like to speak to you more about this.

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And I too Sir, which is why I subscribed Sir.

You are right and your basic premises especially part 1 are correct.

I see and desire a more granular map than state level, hopefully my instinct to solve problems at the root do not deceive me.

Example; here is the problem.

ACELA corridor map. This is the corridor of power, money and the enemy.

https://images.app.goo.gl/Y1W82itDd8uzYHTNA

Why let them have more?

That’s them starting between the Reddest mountains and the sea.

TE Lawrence campaign in Arabia is most helpful here. Best book is by BH Liddell Hart, the key was he understood the Turks were chained to the rails and he kept them that way. When he laid siege to a city he did not storm or totally siege or blockade. He made them hungry not desperate. They then kept resupplying as Lawrence desired, making those sunk costs fatal fallacies. Same with rail. He harassed he did not destroy. Why make your enemy choose when you can bleed him with his own attempted compromises?

Those Turkish islands in the sea of Arabs match the map of Blue surrounded by Red.

Red Blue county map- let us begin here, let them earn their states. A Republic if you can keep it, we didn’t we let them steal it. Very well Enemies- a Continent if you can get it, as it happens we live here and we’ll keep that at least (we can).

Let them defend their Blue, we stage and maneuver like mist in Red.

https://www.startpage.com/av/proxy-image?piurl=https%3A%2F%2Fencrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com%2Fimages%3Fq%3Dtbn%3AANd9GcR27QCGQ9yw9JDsQf0RjH6ISocRQaGrmT-uoL3Bs5jlzcUaFJc%26s&sp=1657594679T3e2638c9ae2c94ad8dcacd35fae860e03b0c18ab89a71fdd9a66134804aa2059

Lawrence campaign

COLONEL LAWRENCE THE MAN BEHIND THE LEGEND BY LIDDELL HART

You are correct about the level of government that stands is the banner that will be flocked to - but lets not leave resources on the table that are extremely valuable. I am in Western NY, I assure you Albany does NOT have us . Cuomo would have had to come here in an MRAP if he tried when he passed the SAFE act in 2015.

And the Sheriffs were in open defiance to the point of leading the militia. Yes. West of Binghamton is Northern West VA.

These are Scot-Irish.

Take away their guns?

Delusional.

So no Hochul (Gov NY) can’t have where I live, nor shall she find police or soldiers who shall filch it for her...perhaps she can send some lawyers?

Give them nothing.

We start with and keep red, let them eat sidewalk weeds soup in Blue, we then have 2 million sq miles they have a few tens of thousands.

No siege should be done when partial blockade and interdiction work better, sieges force choices... blockades beg compromises (which are fatal).

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2d reply

Lets assume we take the field, which means we have organization and logistics and then the warriors flock (should mention that is all holding them back presently).

We must be careful and miserly with the veterans and the trained lives. No Cauldrons, no sieges , nothing that slaughters the soldiers.

As core strategy.

Here is why; The Germans lost their very experienced and expert army in 1941 even though they wiped out several Soviet ones.

It didn’t matter. Those SOV armies were virgin armies and the Soviets replaced them, the Germans lost their brilliant army in 41 and never got it back. The replacements weren’t the same.

The same thing Korea June 1950.

The South Koreans ROK Army hurled the bulk of their army into the NORKS highly trained, well equipped Formations and lost their army.

They lost Seoul.

It didn’t matter. They grievously wounded the NORKS and they lost their best soldiers, ran out of good ones almost at the Finish line. Macarthur made a landing behind them and they collapsed.

Strategy beat better tactics.

We preserve as Washington did, for once it exists it IS America, if it is destroyed the enemy victory is final.!

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We preserve the army as Washington did, for once it exists it is America, if destroyed so are the people and the nation.

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As far as the Blue cities in Red states go, whomever controls the interstate highways and the railroad lines near them wins. I live in east central Indiana, and even large cities like Indianapolis, once you get about 20-25 miles away, are surrounded by rural Red farmlands and small towns.

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My Dear (Sir?) Kapper,

There must be organizations or it is over before it starts, and the unruly American herd will be culled by hunger, cold, want; this is the situation now they have won it all and are mopping up and consolidating. Since you mention the highways - have you heard of DEF? The trucks don’t run without it and the food will not be grown or harvested never mind distributed.

The reflexive response to this is to stammer something about gardens or grow your own or some vague notion of “local.”

Well regional beats local and state beats regional and national beats them all probably in detail.

Far from warring against them we shall shortly be begging them for food.

This is presently our situation, and our fatal inertia of “we just want to be left alone “ is indeed our fatal default.

Red living there doesn’t mean control. Red is too petit bourgeois selfish libertarian in deed regardless of declared party to control anything.

Control means force, force means risk, most wouldn’t risk the Pergot floors never mind life.

Both Lenin and the other great social Revolutionary (who’s name escapes me , Adolf something I think ) catalogued the uselessness of the Petit Bourgeoisie in strife, only useful in good times. They were experts at what they did and they were right. Unfortunately that’s the GOP especially at the sub national level, at the national level mere pets of the Democrats.

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Jul 14, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt

"Since you mention the highways - have you heard of DEF? The trucks don’t run without it..." Is that true? My understanding is that trucks run just fine without DEF and did in fact run just fine for the decades prior to the invention of DEF in the mid 2000's. I think DEF is used not because trucks need but because the EPA mandated its use to reduce nitric oxide emissions.

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This is true, if the trucks aren’t banned from the road. Progressives won’t go away thwarted however, and what isn’t happening is ammonia based fertilizer isn’t being replaced, so food shan’t be grown.

The option of being cleverly American about it and coming up with a technical workaround is not really open. They want us dead and gone, they have decently enough told us this, we scurry like rats and roaches from makeshift to makeshift and many will do so until their death.

There’s no technical solution to people who want you dead.

However yes, the trucks can run without DEF, will they be allowed to ? See Climate emergency. What do you think the answer is?

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Beyond from calling Slavs non-Whites, jews not being the main instigators and actors within the internationalist scene, and Christ being praised across the nation, I thought this article was damned good. Keep it up.

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What happens if team blue wins?

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Who will lead? Their is a serious lack of qualified leaders in the world. Im willing to follow. There is plenty of angst in the US but no one who can seriously channel it into a cohesive movement. Our "leaders" now are concerned with money and prestige. Who is willing to lay down their life? This will be a brutal slog, no awards at the end or retirement packages.

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As I mentioned on your Part 1 post, it might be better to cast this as the Second American Revolution rather than the 2ACW. IMO, this would immediately lend more moral authority to the Blue side. And that's what we're really fighting about: the conflict between free men embracing individual liberty, and centralized totalitarian government operating at the expense of the individual.

The Blue heartland would likely prevail in the long run, as it sits on most of the food and energy production. It would also benefit from interior lines of communication. And as long as the whole world is at play, the western Canadian provinces would likely eventually join the Red team, bringing in even more food and energy production. I used to do long-range strategic planning at the Pentagon; most futurists predict that western Canada would eventually join the US anyway, even without a war.

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ACCKKK! I meant to say "more moral authority to the Red side" and "Red heartland!"

(I've done too many wargames in the military where the Blue side was always understood to be the good side, while Red meant the bad ol' Commies.

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Any thoughts on how red team would deal with an attempt by blue team to use the navy to create an economic blockade?

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What happens when the US goes from 20 million barrels per day oil usage to 5mbpd (if not less)?

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Interesting read... I just want somewhere safe to raise a future family, and the tools to defend it, and not feel it.

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Jul 26, 2022·edited Jul 26, 2022

I still don’t understand why a “war” needs to take place. According to BAP, we’re dealing with about 600 problems. Surely a bunch of hicks with 30-06 deer rifles could solve, very quickly.

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Actually...job will probably take an American Mao - best warlord of the sorting process, long march.

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Wow, both last weeks and this article are truly fascinating. Reading it almost feels like science fiction- a Red Dawn reboot but no invaders, just blue vs red. The means to make this kinetic- Army, Navy, AF or national Guard- will all of it just be ‘divided’ by who controls the location of where they are based? What about the hundreds of Navy ships and thousands of troops overseas?

As soon as internet goes so will the economy and every business that has a footprint in multiple states. Banks emptied, food gone. I imagine a Mad Max scenario for a while.

Will you stay in OC? If not when will you get out?

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Ok missed that you are in OC VA not OC CA. Saw some replies about the Navy. That entity seems to be a major wildcard, floating around for months with massive firepower but also non-nuclear powered ships will need fuel to keep going. Alaska will be a major prize for who can control and distribute its abundant resources.

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deletedJul 10, 2022·edited Jul 10, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt
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author

I disagree with some of this including the post war, but I thank your for the time and effort and agree with most else. This is an ongoing conversation and will become clearer as time passes.

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"You're wrong about the Jews. This is how they operate giving the impression that its their goy minions who are the responsible actors. They are not. It is the Jew deliberately collapsing their ponzi scheme while setting themselves up to run the whole scam again once the dust settles."

1. You give your power away by placing so much power in the "they".

Sure, Jews have their hands in in the collapsing Ponzi, as they do in many power structures and did throughout history.

2. You deny that evil exists in the hearts of all men by imagining a group of individuals to be the "real" evil actors.

Many Jews wield lots of power, perhaps because they have gotten real good at the game of survival. Learn from them. Work with them if you dare. Most importantly, recognize that Jews are individuals. The Jew down the road from you has no secret communication with the Rothchilds. I promise. He is in the same boat as you.

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