Jul 10, 2022·edited Jul 10, 2022Liked by Paul Fahrenheidt
Agree with your assessment of the Rust Belt being fought over, especially due to the strategic necessity of residual industry for arms production. However, I think that you are incorrect about the suburbs not being fierce areas for fighting & that red areas in blue states will not be fought over for long. To the contrary, suburbs are on the outskirts of cities and are generally purple in orientation, so any attempt at conquest by Team Red of Blue cities will have to go through those areas. Second, the consolidation of Red areas in Blue states is actually one of the first objectives of Team Blue. Therefore, members of Team Red in blue states MUST prevent, delay, & harass via partisan warfare or conventional means any attempt by Team Blue to complete this objective. In other words, resource and area access denial.
I'm not so sure nukes won't be used. Biological warfare has the potential for blowback, unless you've vaccinated your own population (in the case of a virus) ... although non-contagious weapons such as anthrax could be effective. In any case, if it becomes more important to remove a city than to take it, nukes may come into play. Not right away, but after years of bitter warfare, the moral cost may be judged negligible when weighed against the morale cost.
There's also the utility of nuclear blackmail. Say there's one, just one, missile sub whose crew throws in with Team Red. They don't need to fire their payload; they just need to threaten to do so, and the threat alone could be sufficient to cause one of the blue islands to surrender.
Then again, the Navy is the bluest of the services, and I can't think of any reason why Team Blue wouldn't use similar tactics against Team Red, especially when the latter have fewer, and smaller, cities.
As far as the Blue cities in Red states go, whomever controls the interstate highways and the railroad lines near them wins. I live in east central Indiana, and even large cities like Indianapolis, once you get about 20-25 miles away, are surrounded by rural Red farmlands and small towns.
Who will lead? Their is a serious lack of qualified leaders in the world. Im willing to follow. There is plenty of angst in the US but no one who can seriously channel it into a cohesive movement. Our "leaders" now are concerned with money and prestige. Who is willing to lay down their life? This will be a brutal slog, no awards at the end or retirement packages.
As I mentioned on your Part 1 post, it might be better to cast this as the Second American Revolution rather than the 2ACW. IMO, this would immediately lend more moral authority to the Blue side. And that's what we're really fighting about: the conflict between free men embracing individual liberty, and centralized totalitarian government operating at the expense of the individual.
The Blue heartland would likely prevail in the long run, as it sits on most of the food and energy production. It would also benefit from interior lines of communication. And as long as the whole world is at play, the western Canadian provinces would likely eventually join the Red team, bringing in even more food and energy production. I used to do long-range strategic planning at the Pentagon; most futurists predict that western Canada would eventually join the US anyway, even without a war.
I still don’t understand why a “war” needs to take place. According to BAP, we’re dealing with about 600 problems. Surely a bunch of hicks with 30-06 deer rifles could solve, very quickly.
Wow, both last weeks and this article are truly fascinating. Reading it almost feels like science fiction- a Red Dawn reboot but no invaders, just blue vs red. The means to make this kinetic- Army, Navy, AF or national Guard- will all of it just be ‘divided’ by who controls the location of where they are based? What about the hundreds of Navy ships and thousands of troops overseas?
As soon as internet goes so will the economy and every business that has a footprint in multiple states. Banks emptied, food gone. I imagine a Mad Max scenario for a while.
Will you stay in OC? If not when will you get out?
Agree with your assessment of the Rust Belt being fought over, especially due to the strategic necessity of residual industry for arms production. However, I think that you are incorrect about the suburbs not being fierce areas for fighting & that red areas in blue states will not be fought over for long. To the contrary, suburbs are on the outskirts of cities and are generally purple in orientation, so any attempt at conquest by Team Red of Blue cities will have to go through those areas. Second, the consolidation of Red areas in Blue states is actually one of the first objectives of Team Blue. Therefore, members of Team Red in blue states MUST prevent, delay, & harass via partisan warfare or conventional means any attempt by Team Blue to complete this objective. In other words, resource and area access denial.
I'm not so sure nukes won't be used. Biological warfare has the potential for blowback, unless you've vaccinated your own population (in the case of a virus) ... although non-contagious weapons such as anthrax could be effective. In any case, if it becomes more important to remove a city than to take it, nukes may come into play. Not right away, but after years of bitter warfare, the moral cost may be judged negligible when weighed against the morale cost.
There's also the utility of nuclear blackmail. Say there's one, just one, missile sub whose crew throws in with Team Red. They don't need to fire their payload; they just need to threaten to do so, and the threat alone could be sufficient to cause one of the blue islands to surrender.
Then again, the Navy is the bluest of the services, and I can't think of any reason why Team Blue wouldn't use similar tactics against Team Red, especially when the latter have fewer, and smaller, cities.
Thought provoking! Biden has thrown his lot into the destruction of Americas energy resources and the defeat of Russia at any cost. It’s his legacy!
Sir,
I’d love to join Team Red.
I’ve got the skills and experience.
Too bad it doesn’t exist.
Petroleum distribution systems and Truckers sir. That we can do and they’re already in. We die of famine without them anyway, never mind lose.
Gasoline and Trucks Folks.
Or we’re gone without a shot.
I’m going to take politely a basic exception to our hosts premise that 2ACW is inevitable.
2ACW ran from February 2020 (Covid) to 20 January 2021 when Biden was sworn in.
Call me Sarge, I’ll believe it when I see it. I don’t. Would love to.
There’s no fight in them now and no one leads, nothing to join.
Ireland 1847 wasn’t a war, it was a culling of the herd. That’s what is happening now.
Let us hope that changes.
As far as the Blue cities in Red states go, whomever controls the interstate highways and the railroad lines near them wins. I live in east central Indiana, and even large cities like Indianapolis, once you get about 20-25 miles away, are surrounded by rural Red farmlands and small towns.
What happens if team blue wins?
Who will lead? Their is a serious lack of qualified leaders in the world. Im willing to follow. There is plenty of angst in the US but no one who can seriously channel it into a cohesive movement. Our "leaders" now are concerned with money and prestige. Who is willing to lay down their life? This will be a brutal slog, no awards at the end or retirement packages.
As I mentioned on your Part 1 post, it might be better to cast this as the Second American Revolution rather than the 2ACW. IMO, this would immediately lend more moral authority to the Blue side. And that's what we're really fighting about: the conflict between free men embracing individual liberty, and centralized totalitarian government operating at the expense of the individual.
The Blue heartland would likely prevail in the long run, as it sits on most of the food and energy production. It would also benefit from interior lines of communication. And as long as the whole world is at play, the western Canadian provinces would likely eventually join the Red team, bringing in even more food and energy production. I used to do long-range strategic planning at the Pentagon; most futurists predict that western Canada would eventually join the US anyway, even without a war.
What happens when the US goes from 20 million barrels per day oil usage to 5mbpd (if not less)?
Interesting read... I just want somewhere safe to raise a future family, and the tools to defend it, and not feel it.
I still don’t understand why a “war” needs to take place. According to BAP, we’re dealing with about 600 problems. Surely a bunch of hicks with 30-06 deer rifles could solve, very quickly.
Actually...job will probably take an American Mao - best warlord of the sorting process, long march.
Wow, both last weeks and this article are truly fascinating. Reading it almost feels like science fiction- a Red Dawn reboot but no invaders, just blue vs red. The means to make this kinetic- Army, Navy, AF or national Guard- will all of it just be ‘divided’ by who controls the location of where they are based? What about the hundreds of Navy ships and thousands of troops overseas?
As soon as internet goes so will the economy and every business that has a footprint in multiple states. Banks emptied, food gone. I imagine a Mad Max scenario for a while.
Will you stay in OC? If not when will you get out?